| Effect of Gender Gap on Elections Examined in New Podcast |
What does research tell us about the gender gap? Do other factors, such as race, religiosity, and opinions about the war in Iraq, interact with gender to affect voting behavior? Based on what we know, how will the gender gap affect the 2008 presidential election? These are some of the questions that are addressed in the roundtable, “The Gender Gap in the 2006 and 2008 Elections,” the second podcast in the MPSA series (click here to listen). Kathleen Dolan (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee), Susan McManus (University of South Florida), Karen Kaufmann (University of Maryland, College Park), Barbara Norrander (University of Arizona), and Barbara Burrell (Northern Illinois University), participated in this roundtable presented at the 2007 MPSA National Conference. This article summarizes some of the discussion.
Exit poll data from 2006 for 19 women candidates show that 12 women candidates had positive gender gaps (i.e., women were more likely to vote for women candidates than were men), Kathleen Dolan says. Of the 12, 9 were Democrats and 3 were Republicans. Dolan notes that the gender gap for women candidates is equally driven by the fact that women tend to be Democrats and women candidates tend to run as Democrats. The remaining seven women candidates, all Republicans, had negative gender gaps (i.e., they drew more support from men). Primary voter polling data show a positive gender gap for Hilary Clinton, Dolan says, that exists across party and ideological lines, especially among independent voters and young people, those least likely to vote.
Susan McManus examines the intersection of race and gender in voting issues, support for candidates, and turnout patterns. Between the 2004 and 2006 elections, turnout of women voters, especially African American women, dipped and the gender gap widened, she observes. Polling data show a racial divide for Clinton and Barak Obama, McManus says, with African American women supporting Clinton and African American men supporting Obama.
The gender gap has narrowed from 14% in 1996 to 7% in 2004, and in the South the gap has closed, Karen Kaufmann observes. Using data from 2004 and 2006 exit polls (restricted to white voters), she finds that in 2004 among people who reported they attended church one or more times a week the gender gap was small, but among those who reported they did not attend church the gap was large. In the South, where about 48% of white voters identify themselves as Evangelicals or born-again Christians, the gender gap collapsed among mainline Protestants and evangelical Christians in the 2004 and 2006 house votes, but it increased slightly among Catholics and did not change among seculars.
Looking at exit poll data for the 2006 House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, Barbara Norrander says the gender gap in 2006 was similar to that in 2004. When there is a female Democrat candidate, the gap gets bigger, and when there is a female Republican candidate, the gap gets smaller. Norrander notes there was no significant difference in the success rates of men and women candidates running for House seats in 2006.
Barbara Burrell examines data from various surveys to see if there has been a gendered public response to the use of force in the Iraq war and to what extent security concerns affected women’s responses to a host of issues surrounding the use of force. Across time, she says, women are more likely than men to say that sending troops to Iraq was a mistake. Burrell discusses media coverage of the issues and raises questions regarding the 2008 elections.
To listen to the roundtable or download it, click here.